South Centre Statement to the G20 Trade and Investment Ministerial Meeting (TIMM)
Gqeberha, South Africa | 10 October 2025
– On Priority 3: Trade and Investment Framework to address Green Industrialisation and Sustainable Development
– On Priority 4: WTO Reform and Development Dimension
Trump and the Return of the Nation-State: Hegemony and Crisis of the Neoliberal Global Order
By Humberto Campodonico
This article examines the deepening crisis of the global economic and trade order established after World War II, a crisis accelerated by Donald Trump’s return to the United States presidency. Trump has adopted a stance openly hostile to neoliberal globalization, promoting instead a project centered on reinforcing the nation-state, employing commercial coercion, and using economic power to preserve US hegemony by neutralizing China. His “reciprocal tariffs” and the “Big Beautiful Bill” illustrate this shift, breaking with the World Trade Organization and consolidating elite power while sharply reducing social spending. Far from correcting the inequities of neoliberal globalization, these measures channel the social dislocations of deindustrialization and the impoverishment of the US Rust Belt into an authoritarian discourse of economic sovereignty.
The article situates this process within the broader crisis of democratic capitalism, marked by declining trust in liberal democracy and the rise of populisms and authoritarian regimes that capitalize on discontent without offering redistributive solutions. The analysis draws on Graham Allison’s “Thucydides Trap” and Carla Norrlöf’s reading of Ibn Khaldun to explain both hegemonic rivalry and internal fragmentation. Finally, it explores alternatives to the failed neoliberal order and argues for opening a collective debate on a new international system in which the Global South must play a role.
Mapping Africa’s Digital Trade: AfCFTA, JSI & AU AI Strategy
WTO Public Forum Working Session 49
Organizer: South Centre
18 September 2025 10:45-12:00 Room S3
This session explores how Africa is shaping its digital trade future through the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol, engagement in WTO e-commerce discussions, and the Continental Artificial Intelligence Strategy. It will examine the region’s priorities on data governance, local value creation, and inclusive digital markets, while assessing risks of fragmentation across regimes. Speakers will consider how African countries can assert greater agency in global digital rulemaking and align trade, technology, and development strategies. The session offers a forward-looking perspective on what a fair and inclusive global digital trade architecture could look like from an African and Global South perspective.
WTO Reform: Rewriting Trade History – The United States as Architect and Beneficiary of the Multilateral Trading System
A Working Paper on Elements of WTO Reform, 1 September 2025
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This paper examines the revisionist trade narrative advanced by the United States, which portrays multilateral rules as disadvantageous and seeks to justify unilateral tariffs and coercive bilateral arrangements. It demonstrates that the principles of non-discrimination and reciprocity pre-date Bretton Woods and were embedded in the multilateral system through U.S. initiatives from the 1930s through the creation of GATT in 1947. Far from being disadvantaged, the U.S. has consistently shaped and benefitted from the system, including through the Uruguay Round’s expansion of enforceable rules on services, intellectual property, and investment. The analysis shows that the shift toward what has been termed the “Turnberry system” risks fragmenting global markets, eroding the MFN principle, and deepening structural asymmetries that leave developing countries more vulnerable to exclusion. By correcting historical records, the paper underscores the importance of defending multilateral guarantees of equal treatment while building institutional capacity and strategic coordination to better safeguard development priorities in an increasingly contested global order.
Sustainable Development with an Unsustainable Investor – State Dispute Settlement Mechanism?
Side Event to the 60th Session of the Human Rights Council
Co-organized by the South Centre, Permanent Mission of Honduras in Geneva and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Development
Date: Monday, 8 September 2025, 2-3 PM
Venue: Concordia 1, Building A, Palais des Nations
Is the current ISDS mechanism undermining human rights & sustainable development?
Join our HRC60 side event to discuss the impacts and explore fairer alternatives.
WTO Reform: Structuring a Positive Agenda for Developing Countries
A Working Document on Structuring Reform Around Legal Principles and Development Priorities, 15 July 2025
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This Working Document outlines a structured contribution to the WTO reform process from a legal and developmental perspective. It organises the wide range of reform issues into seven categories, based on their legal character, institutional handling, and the procedural steps required for meaningful resolution. The aim is to support a more coherent and inclusive reform process by offering a logical framework grounded in the Marrakesh Agreement and reflective of the WTO’s foundational principles. It is intended to assist Members in navigating reform discussions in a manner that is principled, transparent, and responsive to the priorities of developing countries.
WTO Reform: Framing Challenges in the Facilitator-led Process and Strategic Considerations for Developing Countries
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This Informal Note was prepared to inform developing country participation in the next round of Facilitator-led consultations on WTO reform. It provides a critical reflection on the three-track framework proposed by the Facilitator, namely Governance, Fairness and Future, and raises concerns about the framing, legal coherence, and process legitimacy of the emerging reform agenda. The note highlights the risks of implicitly reshaping negotiating priorities through informal structuring, particularly in ways that may disadvantage developing countries or dilute existing legal mandates. It offers strategic considerations and suggested responses to the three guiding questions posed by the Facilitator, underscoring the need to reaffirm treaty-embedded rights such as Special and Differential Treatment, preserve institutional integrity, and ensure that any reform remains firmly anchored in multilateral principles, Member-driven processes, and the development dimension. A separate working document proposing a structured positive agenda for developing countries will follow to complement this analysis.
WTO Reform: Facilitator’s Report on Initial Consultations (JOB/GC/445)
Commentary, 9 July 2025
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This commentary provides a critical analysis of the Facilitator’s Report on Initial Consultations on WTO Reform, highlighting the absence of a shared reform objective, the fragmentation of issues, and the risks posed to developing country priorities, particularly with respect to the Special and Differential Treatment and self-designation, and the consensus-based decision-making. It examines the legal and institutional implications of current reform narratives and cautions against proposals that may entrench rather than correct systemic imbalances.
Harnessing Open Account Trade — A Major Enabler for Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries
Can blockchain technology come to the rescue? Will the African Continental Free Trade Area leverage its Digital Trade Protocol?
By Yuefen Li
The current geopolitical landscape has made domestic resource mobilization an even more important imperative for developing countries. In this context, it is more urgent than ever to combat illicit financial flows (IFFs) whose staggering amount from developing countries has outstripped the combined sum of official development assistance (ODA) and foreign direct investment (FDI) going into the developing world. The IFFs from the financial channel is significant, but the greater proportion of IFFs actually stems from trade channels rather than from financial channels. It is particularly concerning that the flexibility and legitimacy of international trade have been exploited to cover IFFs. Trade mis-invoicing is the largest component of IFFs from developing countries. A major reason for trade being used to undertake illicit, fraudulent or criminal activities is because 80%-85% of the more than US$ 24 trillion international trade is conducted via open account trade (OAT), which has minimum scrutiny as it is conducted on a bilateral basis between the importer and exporter, not transparent and with minimal involvement of the financial institutions and customs authorities. OAT payment does not require documents to prove quality, quantity and other information about the product being shipped and is made through automatic payment systems which lack the oversight provided by any third party. OAT gives trade mis-invoicing great ease, flexibility, minimal cost and minimal risk. Therefore, if the world is serious about combatting IFFs, it is urgent and imperative to close loopholes in the OAT for IFFs, making it transparent, trackable and involving third party monitoring and scrutiny. The functionalities and features of Blockchain technology (BCT), though its implementation is still nascent, can be a good candidate to make OAT more modern, transparent to regulators, traceable, more efficient and above all minimize IFFs. The goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)’s Digital Trade Protocol (DTP) include boosting intra-African trade through unifying and harmonizing regulatory framework for Africa’s digital economy and regional trade, promoting cross-border data flows and paperless trade, and enhancing cybersecurity measures. The exploration of Blockchain adoption to reduce OAT’s risks for IFFs and make trade more effective aligns well with DTP’s goals.
Impact of Global Trade Tensions on Developing Countries: How to respond to a reset of the global economic system
By Yuefen Li
The recent unilateral, significant and broad-ranging tariff hikes by the new United States administration have triggered unprecedented trade tension in the world and led to significant downward revisions of the world’s economic and trade growth projections for 2025 and beyond. The main aims of the U.S.’ trade policies are complex and strategic, not only about reducing the trade and fiscal deficits, but also addressing the dollar overvaluation problem, “reconfigur(ing) the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit”, promoting economic “fairness” and “making America great again”. As what has frequently happened before, the poor countries are disproportionally affected by the negative repercussions of these policies, owing to their financial and capacity constraints and weaknesses to absorb the impact. This short paper analyses through which channels and to what degree trade tension would introduce economic, financial and political stability risks for developing countries, particularly in financially distressed developing countries. A few policy recommendations are also briefly mentioned.
WTO at 30: A Reckoning or Just Another Review?
By Vahini Naidu
As the World Trade Organization (WTO) marks its 30th anniversary, Director-General (DG) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for a reflection process to assess the organisation’s achievements and chart its future. For developing countries, this reflection presents a significant opportunity. A well-managed process could begin to address the structural imbalances embedded in WTO rules that constrain policy space, limit technology access, and restrict development pathways. Conversely, a poorly handled approach risks reducing it to a narrow review that fails to account for the broader economic realities shaping trade and the persistent development needs of the Global South. This paper argues that the DG’s reflection process must be firmly member-driven, with clear governance principles, and rooted in a comprehensive development audit to assess how WTO rules have impacted developing countries over the past three decades. The paper contends that a meaningful reflection requires more than procedural introspection; it requires a serious conversation about the future of global trade governance and its relevance to development, ensuring that the WTO’s evolution genuinely responds to the priorities of its majority membership.
America First, Trade Last: The Rise of Weaponised Tariffs
By Vahini Naidu
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited economic nationalism, transforming tariffs into instruments of political and economic coercion. His administration’s four-phase strategy—setting policy objectives, conducting strategic reviews, imposing preemptive tariffs, and unpredictable brinkmanship—signals a shift towards unilateralism that bypasses traditional legal frameworks and undermines multilateral trade governance. The recent tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on security grounds, represent an unprecedented expansion of executive power in trade policy. As the U.S. weakens the WTO and prioritises economic nationalism, the Global South faces a decisive moment. The increasing use of trade measures for geopolitical leverage threatens to further marginalise developing countries. In response, the Global South must take a proactive role in shaping the global trade landscape—deepening South-South cooperation, enhancing regional trade frameworks, and advancing structural reforms to promote resilience and economic sovereignty in an era of growing trade uncertainty. This piece argues that Trump’s trade strategy marks a broader shift towards a power-driven trade order, where economic dominance supersedes rules-based governance, and that the Global South must act decisively to prevent a future where trade is dictated by the strongest rather than negotiated through fairness and equity.
